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← All fact checksAfternoon run · October 27, 2026 · #8 by reach
CrimePoliticsStatistic

Did violent crime plummet in 2025 according to statistics?

Did violent crime fall 25% in 2025, Trump's first year back in office, as the Justice Department says?

True, but…

Violent crime estimates for 2025 are accurate but preliminary.

The claim that violent crime plummeted in 2025 is broadly accurate but comes with caveats. Preliminary estimates show significant declines, yet they may change upon final release.

Sources ↓Original post ↗
Genuine
The post as it circulated, labelled by our media check.Image

Claims

✓ 7 true

New estimates from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey show violent crime plummeted in 2025 compared to 2024.12

✓ Likely trueCentral claimHigh confidence

The claim correlates with recent reports from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the U.S. Department of Justice, which highlight a significant decrease in violent crime of approximately 25%. However, these estimates are preliminary as they stem from a newly redesigned survey method, and BJS has cautioned that final figures may differ. The underlying statistics are corroborated by reputable sources, enhancing the reliability of the reported decline.

Non-fatal violent crime (violent victimization excluding simple assault) declined 25% from 2024 to 2025.1

✓ TrueHigh confidence

According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics' preliminary data, non-fatal violent victimization excluding simple assault indeed declined by 25% from 2024 to 2025, corroborated by DOJ announcements. This figure demonstrates a substantive decrease in reported violent crime.

Aggravated assault declined 31% from 2024 to 2025.12

✓ TrueHigh confidence

The DOJ press release cites a 31% decline in aggravated assault rates, reflecting significant changes between the two years. The data corroborates BJS's findings on violent crime trends.

The rate of property victimization declined 19% from 2024 to 2025.12

✓ TrueHigh confidence

Property victimization rates also reflect a 19% decline based on BJS preliminary estimates. This sharp drop illustrates broader trends in overall crime reduction during this period.

Burglary or trespassing declined 25% from 2024 to 2025.12

✓ TrueHigh confidence

The statistics reveal a decline of 25% in burglary or trespassing incidents, as detailed in the DOJ's communications from BJS. This corroborates the trend of reduced property crimes.

Motor vehicle theft declined 30% from 2024 to 2025.12

✓ TrueHigh confidence

A substantial 30% reduction in motor vehicle theft is affirmed through BJS preliminary estimates, revealing considerable shifts in crime patterns.

Other types of household theft declined 19% from 2024 to 2025.12

✓ TrueHigh confidence

The reported figures indicate a 19% decline in other household theft incidents, supported by both BJS and DOJ findings. This aligns with the overall trend of crime decline noted in the survey.

What was posted

X

The post claims that violent crime dropped significantly in 2025, citing estimates from the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

“🚨 New estimates from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey show violent crime PLUMMETED in 2025 compared to 2024. This is what happens when you have an administration who prioritizes the safety and security of Americans and our communities. @POTUS Trump’s Make Amer…”

Who posted it

X
@agtoddblanche

Account under a year old

View the account on X ↗

Account check

Looks like a genuine account90%
Likelihood of automation10%

Estimates from public signals — account age, posting pattern, audience — not a judgement of the person behind the account, and separate from whether this post is true.

What stood out

  • The Twitter handle '@agtoddblanche' is associated with Todd Blanche, the 88th United States Attorney General, who was sworn in on August 10, 2026. (cbsnews.com)
  • Todd Blanche has a history of representing President Donald J. Trump in legal matters, including serving as his personal criminal defense attorney. (justice.gov)
  • The account is not verified on Twitter, which is common for public figures who may not seek verification or have not completed the process.
  • The account has no recent posts, which could indicate inactivity or a decision to maintain a low-profile online presence.
Signals (4)+
Posting cadence
0
Follower ratio
0
Notable news coverage
Yes
Fact check history
No

Account checked October 25, 2026, 03:07 UTC

The media

Image
GenuinePresented as real footage

✓ What is genuine

The image accurately summarizes statistics reported by BJS and DOJ.

The tells

  • ●●● Strong signal The graphic looks professional and aligns with official reporting style.our visual review
  • ●●● Strong signal The stats match the official BJS/DOJ reports.our cross-verification

Synthetic-media detector

Detector not consulted

The media is incidental to the claim; the detector was not needed.

How we checked the media

  • Reviewed the image for signs of manipulation or inauthenticity.
  • Cross-verified statistics depicted in the image with BJS and DOJ reports.

Sources

3 sources reviewed

Further reading

The full story

On October 26, 2026, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) released preliminary estimates from the redesigned National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) for 2025, revealing significant declines in violent victimization rates. Specifically, nonfatal violent victimization, which excludes simple assaults, saw a drop of approximately 25%. Other reported declines included 31% in aggravated assault, 19% in property crime, and notable decreases in burglary and motor vehicle theft. BJS emphasized that these figures are preliminary and might be adjusted in the final analysis set to publish later. Despite the reductions shown, the framing of these statistics in the original post connects them to political narratives surrounding safety and security, which introduces subjective interpretation into the data presentation.

Kernel of truth

Violent crime rates did decline significantly in 2025 based on the preliminary reports.

Timeline

  1. October 26, 2026

    Bureau of Justice Statistics releases preliminary estimates showing declines in crime rates. 1Bureau of Justice Statistics

  2. October 26, 2026

    U.S. Department of Justice issues a press release summarizing the BJS findings. 2U.S. Department of Justice (Office of Public Affairs)

How it was framed

Misleading content

While the underlying statistics are accurate, attributing them solely to political success constitutes a subjective interpretation of the data.

  • Emotional language. The use of 'PLUMMETED' evokes a strong emotional response.
  • Selective evidence. The post cites specific declines without discussing the redesign of the survey method.

The post was shared on Twitter by Attorney General Todd Blanche and conveys a political message linked to crime reduction.

Bias

NoneSlightModerateStrong

Leans pro-administration. The post is authored by the Attorney General and frames the statistical findings as evidence that the current administration's policies are working, which is a praise-focused political framing of the numbers.

Bias describes how the post frames its message — the slant of the language, selection and emphasis — and is judged separately from whether the claim is true. A true claim can still be framed with a strong slant.

How we checked

1 min 16 s
  1. 1

    Conducted searches for preliminary estimates from BJS regarding violent crime.

  2. 2

    Checked the DOJ press release for corresponding statistics.

  3. 3

    Reviewed the image to verify its authenticity against confirmed reports.

✓ Claim checked✓ Media checked✓ Sources checked

Why 89% confidence

High

We have high confidence due to strong corroboration from BJS and DOJ reports, and the absence of manipulation in the media.

Limits. We could not assess metadata for the image since media authenticity was deemed not pivotal.

What we don’t know

  • What changes could occur in the final estimates released by BJS?
  • How might future policies impact these crime statistics?

Spot it yourself

Find the overstatement

Looks suspicious, isn’t proof

  • The use of dramatic language like 'plummet'.
  • Selective presentation of statistics without noting they are preliminary.
  • Political framing of an otherwise factual statistic.

The actual evidence

  • Statistics are corroborated by reputable sources (BJS and DOJ).
  • The figures mirror data reported widely, ensuring semi-independence.
  • The figures are specific and measurable, giving them grounds for truth.
  1. 1

    Verify where statistics are sourced from.

    Look for official reports from institutions like the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

  2. 2

    Seek corroboration across multiple news sources.

    Find other established media outlets covering the same statistics.

  3. 3

    Be skeptical of emotional language.

    Assess whether the terms used can be backed by quantitative data.

  4. 4

    Check the recency of the information.

    Ensure the statistics or claims are from recent publications.

Takeaway

When evaluating statistics, consider the language used and the context. Always verify with primary sources to assess their authenticity.

Questions people ask

What is the National Crime Victimization Survey?+

The NCVS is a major source of information on criminal victimization in the U.S., collecting data on both reported and unreported crimes.

Why are the statistics labeled as preliminary?+

Preliminary statistics indicate that these figures may be adjusted as the BJS finalizes its analysis, reflecting changes in methodology.

What does 'violent victimization excluding simple assault' mean?+

This term encompasses all forms of violent crime except for simple assaults, providing a clearer picture of serious violent acts.

How do these statistics relate to crime rates in general?+

The statistics suggest a notable trend of decreasing violent crime, aligning with broader public safety narratives.

Go deeper

Victimization
The process of being harmed or injured as a result of a crime.
Preliminary estimates
Initial findings which may be subject to revision in final reports.
Aggravated assault
An attack with intent to cause severe bodily harm.

People also search for

violent crime declined in 2025Bureau of Justice Statistics 2025 estimatescrime statistics 2025 plummet
For educators+
Understanding surveys and their methodologies.The role of language in framing data.Critical analysis of statistical reports.
  • How can language shape public perception of statistics?
  • What factors might influence the discrepancies in crime reporting?
  • Why is it important to understand the methodologies behind crime data collection?

About this check

Platform
X
Posted by
@agtoddblanche
Posted
October 26, 2026
Age when checked
1–2 days old when checked
Where it spread
United States
Audience
US audience
Language
EN
Status
● Post is live
Verified
October 27, 2026, 15:10 UTC
Published
October 27, 2026, 15:10 UTC

Reach. Blanche 1,321 likes, DOJ 383 likes (syndication, 27 Oct); wide pickup 26-27 Oct: CBS News, NY Post, Daily Wire, Daily Signal, RedState, Western Journal ('largest drop in history' framing)

This verdict was generated with AI from the sources shown. AI can make mistakes — check the sources before relying on it.

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